The Economics of Commodity Markets
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At the end of the module, the students will be equipped with the tools necessary for a career in economics and finance. The Issue of Commodity Price Trends, Cycles and Volatility The Prebisch-Singer Hypothesis, empiricasl estimation for individual commodities, commodity value chains, instruments for addressing commodity price behaviour, aid flows and debt relief initiative. Lectures will be used to develop the key material required to undertake basic commodity market analysis. The seminar sessions will be based around problem sets, designed to enforce the material introduced in lectures, which the students will get formative feedback on during class.
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This method of assessment will be done in order to cement the understanding of key concepts. Outline Of Syllabus 1. New developments in different commodity markets may create more interest in new futures contracts over time. For example, a recent article about the wheat market discusses how the decline of U.
The Economics of Commodity Markets
The growing importance of wheat production in Europe would make local supply and demand relatively more relevant to determine wheat prices in Europe. Hence, European producers and merchandisers would naturally seek a futures contract based in Europe, which should better reflect their supply and demand conditions and should allow them to manage their local basis more effectively. The article argues that this is one of the main reasons behind the increase in trading activity for the futures contract on milling wheat offered by the Euronext exchange in Paris in recent years.
Journal of Commodity Markets
Another example could be the futures contracts for agricultural commodities in China, such as the ones traded at the Dalian Commodity Exchange DCE. The growing participation of China in the world market for commodities such as corn and soybeans resembles the case of wheat discussed above, although in much larger magnitude.
However, there are restrictions for foreign traders who want to trade in futures markets in China, which limits the ability of these futures markets to become active pricing platforms for commodities in the world market. Back to the idea of a South American soybean futures contract: Do we need another futures contract for soybeans? However, it is not yet clear what lies ahead. If trade disputes persist, a new futures contract may be useful depending on how the new price dynamics develop.
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The discussion about the potential for a new South American soybean futures contract brings to mind the changes that have been taking place in the corn market. In the last years, Brazil has emerged as a major producer and exporter, as has Ukraine more recently.
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The growing participation of Brazil and Ukraine and a relatively smaller share of the United States in the world market raises the question of whether U. Although the answer is still likely to be yes, this could be changing in coming years. Recent articles that looked into the price dynamics in the corn market suggest that Brazil and Ukraine are already becoming more influential in corn pricing in the world market [5, 6, 7, 8].
Journal of Futures Markets , 1. American Journal of Agricultural Economics, The expansion of Brazilian winter corn crop and its impact on price transmission. International Journal of Financial Studies, 6. June Department of Agriculture, Economic Research Service. By Fabio Mattos. Farm and Ranch.